1、南昌大學碩士學位論文灰色預測模型及其在電力負荷預測中的應用研究姓名：陳霞申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：計算機應用技術指導教師：邱桃榮20071201AbstractABSTRACTGreySystemTheorywasfoundedbyaChinesescholarProDengJLIt’SanewwaytostudytheuncertaintyproblemoflessdataandpoorinformationGreyPrediction

2、Modelofitis、vitllthecharactersoflessdate1lighpredictionprecisionandwithoutpriorinformationHowevermoreandmorestudieshaveshownthatGM(1，1)，asthemostwidelyusedGreyPredictionModel，iSakindofunbiasedexponentialmodelanditcouldn’

3、tgettheexpectedresultssometimesAccordingtothefacts，threenewmodifiedmethodsofGreyPredictionModelareadvancedinthepaperonthebasisofstadyingtheessentialconceptions，basicprinciplesandfundamentalmethodsofGreySystemTheoryWhat’S

4、more，thespecificandpracticalexamplesareusedtopredictinthepapersothattoimproveitspredictionprecisionandenlalgeitspracticalareawhichinvolveseveralaspectsasfollows：1)eliminatedthetwolimitingconditionsofResidualGM(I，1)sothat

5、anyresidualsequencecouldbedisposedbytheresemblingresidualGM(I，1)；2)adoptedsequenceoperatortomiseitsprecisiononconditionthatGM(1，1)is塒t11lowprecisionwhenthedatesequenceincreasedordecreasedtooquickly；3)usedAGM(I，1)tomodify

6、theparametersestimationofGM(1，1)SOthattoimprovethepredictionprecisionofGM(1，1)Besides，apowerloadpredictionsimulationsystembasedonGreySystemTheoryhasbeendesignedandaccomplishedinthispaperwhichtakestheVisualStudioNet2003an

7、dAccess2003asdevelopmenttoolsThesimulationsystemCanvalidatethefeasibilityandvalidityoftheimprovedpredictionmodel，andCansatisfytheactualneedsinsomeconcerningdepartmentstoprovidescientifictheoryandtechniquessupportsmuchmor

8、econvenientlyforitspredictionworksItappliedintoaprovince’SPowerSystemtopredictthefuturepowerloadintheprovinceTheresultsshowthat：firstlyGreyPredictionModelisofsimpleprocessandeffectivepracticalityItcouldprovidescientifict