1、分類弓fJlIilIIIIIIIHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIY1436080理學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文g＆：——編日：——艦船運(yùn)動(dòng)的拓?fù)漕A(yù)測(cè)模型碩士研究生指導(dǎo)教師學(xué)科、專業(yè)趙爽沈繼紅教授應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)哈爾濱I程大學(xué)2008年4月哈爾濱T程大學(xué)碩十學(xué)位論文ABSTRACTTheship，especiallyaircraftcarrier，called‘theoverlordofthesea’innavalwarfareAirc

2、raftcarrierisalargescalesurfaceship，whichadoptscarrierbasedaircraftsasmajorcombatweapons，anditCallnotonlyprotectthesecurityofcountry，butalsoexertmilitarypressureandoperationsinsteadofdependingonthepowerofthelocalairportT

3、herefore，thereisimportantpracticalsignificanceintheresearchofpredictionofshipmotionInfluencedbyseawavesandsomeotherfactors，thedataofshipmotionarecharacterizedbybeingrandomandnonlineartimevarying，andGreysystemtheoryhasits

4、uniquefeatureinthestudyofnonlinearsystemsInthispaper，TopologypredictionmodelofGreysystermpredictionisintroducedintotheshipmotionpredictionforthefirsttime，andpredictsthepitchinganglesofshipmotionThis#perincludes：1Topology

5、predictionisthedatawaveformpredictionofsystembehaviorcharacteristicsduringaperiodoftimeGreytopologypredictionmodelisnotjustaGM(1，1)model，butaGM(1，1)modelgroupInthegroup，amodelhasathresholdvalue，bywhichpredictsthenextoneo

6、rmoremomentscorrespondingtoeachthresholdvalueandpredictstheoveralltrendConsequently，itCansimulatepredictionwiththeoriginalgivendata2Amongthepitchinganglesofshipmotion，therearetwocharacteristics：therearemoredifferencesand

7、frequentchangesinthepitchingangledata；theGM(1，1)modelislimitedtoforecasttheincreaseofmonotonousseriesBasedontheabovetwoones，constructGreytopologypredictionmodelforsimulatingpredictionofthepitchingangles，andtheresultsshow

8、thatGreytopologypredictionmodelisobviouslysuperiortoGM(1，1)model3Accordingtothenumericalexperimentanalysisofseveralgroupsofdifferentdatatheresultsoftheanalysisshowthatthemainelementwhichmayproducethelargererrorinpredicti