1、內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學研究生學位論文獨創(chuàng)聲明本人申明所呈交的學位論文是我本人在導師指導下進行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。據(jù)我所知，除了文中特別加以標注和致謝的地方外，論文中不包括其他人已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫過的研究成果，也不包括為獲得我?；蚱渌逃龣C構(gòu)的學位或證書而使用過的材料，與我一同工作的同志對本研究所做的任何貢獻均已在論文中作了明確的說明并表示謝意。申請學位論文與資料若有不實之處，本人承擔一切相關(guān)責任。論文作者簽名：‘l習冠多‘、～。日期：加|壚

2、6、＼內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學研究生學位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書本人完全了解內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學有關(guān)保護知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的規(guī)定，即：研究生在攻讀學位期間論文工作的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)單位屬內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學。本人保證畢業(yè)離校后，發(fā)表論文或使用論文工作成果時署名單位為內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學，且導師為通訊作者，通訊作者單位亦署名為內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學。學校有權(quán)保留并向國家有關(guān)部門或機構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和電子文檔，允許論文被查閱和借閱。學?？梢怨紝W位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容(保密內(nèi)容除外)，采用影印、縮

3、印或其他手段保存論文。論文作者簽名：指導教師簽名：日期：2皇[絲笸：么ResearchofecologicalsecuritychangesanddevelopmenttrendinduoluncountyofInnerMongoliaAbstractDuoLunCountyofInnerMongoliabelongstoaridandsemi—aridregions，nearlyhalfacenturybecauseoftheinfl

4、uenceofthenaturefactorandtheartificialfactorEcoenvironmentalchangeaffectsthequalityoflifetopeople，atthesametime，DuoLunCountyislocatedincontrollingareaofwindandsandsource，SOevaluatingecologicalsecurityiSveryimportanttothe

5、environmentofDuoLunCountyInthispaper，accordingtothecharacteristicsofecoenvironmentandtheactualsituationofDuoLunCounty，selectedsevenyearsfrom1960to2010astheevaluationsample，builttheecologicalsecurityevaluationindexsystemo

6、fDuoLunCountyaccordingtothePS，Rmodel，thenselectedindicatorsbytheprincipalcomponentanalysisBasedonAHPmethod，theweightofeachindexlayerwasdetermined，finallycalculatedtheecologicalsecurityindexvalue，andthenecologicalsecurity

7、ofDuoLunCountywasevaluatedandanalyzedByusingthemethodofstepwiseregressionanalysistoestablishtheforecastmodelofthechangesontheInnerMongoliaDuoLunCountyecologicalsecurityStudiesshowedthatduringthe50yearsfrom1960to2010，DuoL

8、unCounty’Secologicalsecuritylevelimplementationbygeneralsafetytothesafety，ecologicalsecuritysituationhasimprovedTheecologicalsecurityofDuoLunCountyfrom1960to1987islevelIII，whichisgenerallysafestate，from1995to2010islevelI

9、I，whichisrelativelvsafestateFinallyusedthemethodofstepwiseregressionanalysistoestablishtheecologicalsecurityforecastmodelofDuoLunCounty，comparedthecalculatedresultsbyforecastingmodelwiththecomprehensiveindexmethod，theres

10、ultserroronlyexistedinthemicrometerlevel，botharehighlyfitting，atthesametime，itshowedthattousethestepwiseregressionanalysismethodtoestablishDuoLunCounty’Secologicalsecuritypredictionmodelisscientificandfeasible，andalsodem

11、onstratedthattousecomprehensiveindexmethodtocalculatetheecologicalsecurityindexvalueisreliableKeywords：Ecologicalsecurity；Thedevelopmenttmnd；DuolunCOtAntyofInnerMongolh2Direttedby：ProfAruhanAppIicantforMasterdegree：TIANE