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1、|TRADEIDEAS250620191FOCUS|EMEA25June2019PleaserefertoimptantinfmationMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreptTRADEIDEAKEYMESSAGESWehavecreatedlongshtbasketsofEuropeancompanieswethinkcouldbenefitsufferfromthecurrentlatestageofthe

2、economiccycle.InourviewtheUSeconomiccycleisinitslatestagewhiletheeurozonehasjustenteredthisstage.Giventhelowinflationbackwethinkthisstageofthecyclecouldextendinto2020.Weexpectwagespricingpowerleveragetobecomekeydriversof

3、profitmarginsexpectinvestsectallocationtoshiftfromcyclicaltodefensiveexposure.ConsidergoinglongtheBNPParibasEuropeanlonglatecyclebasketagainstshtBNPParibasEuropeanshtlatecyclebasket.Backtestingsuggeststhestrategyhasgener

4、atedpositivealphaduringsharpmarketcrections.Lateinthegame:Theglobaleconomiccycleisinitslatestageinourview(seeOutlook:Q32019:Latecyclecarrypublished21May)lowinflationmeansitcouldextendinto2020.Wecontinuetoexpectbelowtrend

5、belowconsensusglobaleconomicgrowthover2019–20butnotarecessionthoughwethinktheprobabilityofaglobalgrowthrecessionoverthenext12monthsisstillmuchasitwasinMarch:arelativelyhigh25%.Somebrighterdatadonotchangeourviewofsubpargr

6、owth:Themainculpritofthelossofmomentumintheglobaleconomylatelastyear–namelythedragfromgeopoliticaluncertaintyontradeinvestment–isstillpresentoffsettingthetentativesignsofimprovementseeninearly2019.Earningsdowngradesahead

7、:Earningsgrowthexpectationsfeurozoneequitieslookfrothytousdespiteearningsbeingreviseddownbyaround5%sincethebeginningof2019.Consensuscurrentlyexpectseurozoneequityearningsrevenuestogrow8%3%respectivelyoverthenextthreeyear

8、saboverealisedgrowthsincethefinancialcrisis.Wethinktheseexpectationsarelikelytobedisappointedexpectnegativerevisionstobecomeakeythemeinthenextearningsseason.latecyclelongshtbaskets:Asthelastfewyearsofcycleweredominatedby

9、theGrowthfactoutperfmingwebelievetheendofthecyclewillbeledbydefensives.Thecurrentcyclehasbeenprolongedbycentralbankactionwithacyclethatlastedlongerthananaveragecycle.Asaresultwehaveconstructedtwobasketstopositionfthisthe

10、me.LateinthegameLongBNPParibasEuropeanlonglatecyclebasketagainstshtBNPParibasEuropeanshtlatecyclebasket.Risk:BuyersofTRSmaylosethefullnotionalamountoftheswap.Fig.1:BNPParibaslongshtlatecyclebasketperfmanceFig.2:RVtradepe

11、rfmancevsbenchmarkEQUITY&DERIVATIVESAnkitGheediaCFAEquityDerivativesStrategistBNPParibasLondonBranchAllsources:BloombergBNPParibas.ThesehypotheticalpastperfmancesimulationsaretheresultofestimatesmadebyBNPParibasasofagive

12、nmomentonthebasisofparametersmarketconditionshisticaldataedbyBNPParibasshouldnotbeusedasguidanceinanywayoffutureperfmance.TheabovegraphisfillustrativepurposesonlyAsof12Jun201918Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q2LateCycleLong3.4%10.4

13、%7.2%10.1%17.1%1.3%LateCycleSht4.4%0.8%1.8%21.7%15.3%0.7%Rel.Perf7.9%11.2%9.0%11.5%1.8%0.6%SXXP4.0%4.3%1.5%11.7%14.6%1.7%|TRADEIDEAS4TheBNPParibaslatecyclelongbasketsuggestsabetterprofitabilitybrighterearningsoutlook:The

14、longbasketdemonstratesa12mfwardreturnonequityof18.2indicatingamuchstrongerprofitabilitycomparedtotheshtbasket(12.0)aggregatedmarket(10.3).Atthesametimetheearningstrendofthelongbaskethasbeensolidsince2014(Figure10).Fmeonc

15、pateprofitabilityseeDeepDive:Profitcycleanatomypublished13June.Nineoutoftensectsdeliverbetterprofitabilityinthelongbasketthantheshtbasketaccdingtoourrelativevalueanalysis(Figure11).Theexclusionoffinancialsinbothbasketsme

16、anseventheshtbasketlooksmeprofitablethanthemarket.Valuation:Overallthelongbasketistradingatahigherpricetoearningspricetobookratios(Figures1213)whiletheshtbasketistradingatadiscount.Wethinkthehighervaluationcanbejustified

17、bybetterprofitabilitytrendsbetterearningsmomentum.Therelativevaluetradehasthehighestpriceearningsratioinmaterials(Figure14).Wedon’texpectthistoweighonfutureshareperfmanceasmaterialsareverylightweightinthelonglatecyclebas

18、ket(2%)inourviewthehighprofitability–ROEof33fthelongbasket11ftheshtbasket–maynotbepricedin.EQUITY&DERIVATIVESAnkitGheediaCFAEquityDerivativesStrategistBNPParibasLondonBranchFig.9:Longbasketappearstohavebetterprofitabilit

19、y…Fig.10:…strongerearningsmomentumSources:BloombergBNPParibasSources:BloombergBNPParibasFig.12:LongbasketistradingatapremiumFig.13:LongbasketistradingatapremiumSources:BloombergBNPParibasSources:BloombergBNPParibasFig.14

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