1、河海大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于蒙特卡羅法的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性分析姓名：楊鳴申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：電力系統(tǒng)及其自動化指導(dǎo)教師：陳星鶯20060301AbstractDistributionsystemsconnecttheconsumerdirectly，anditssupplyreliabilitycanmakegreatinfluencesonconsumersSomeresearchworksaboutimprovereliabilitym

2、odelandevaluationalgorithmarepresentedinthispaperFirstly，theresearchcontentsandbasicconceptofthedistributionsystemsreliabilityaregiven，aSwellasdomesticandinternationalresearchstatusatpresentSecondly，twobasicmethods—Analy

3、ticalmethodandSimulationmethod，fordistributionsystemsandtheimprovedalgorithmsbasedonthesetwomethodsaresummarizedinthispaperAtthesametime，systemreliabilityindicesformulasarealsointroducedThirdly，inthepartofimprovedmodel，a

4、distributionsystemsreliabilityevaluationmodelwhichconsideredmulti—influencefactorsispresented，andthenthisreliabilityevaluationmodelisusedtOcalculatereliabilityindicesTraditionallyresearchersalwaysignoredinfluencefactorso

5、nreliabilityevMumion，oronlyconsideredoneortwoaspectsInthispaper，someinfluencefactorsarecomNnedtoformamorereasonablemodelfordistributionreliabilityevaluation，suchasweatherfactoLcomponentlifefactorrestorationresourcesfacto

6、rtimevaryingloadmodelandSOon功ecalculationresultsfollowedthisapproacharemoreaccuratecomparedwiththeresultsoftraditionalonesInthepanofimprovedalgorithm，aMonteCarlobasedapproachforfuzzyreliabilityevaluationispresented111isa

7、pproachbothconsidersstochasticeventsofdistributionsystemsandfuzzinessofcomponentsparametersReliabilityindiceswithdifferentconfidencescanbeobtainedbythisapproachUsingfuzzysettheoryreliabilitydataarerepresentedbymembership

8、functions，notasinglevalueThesemembershipfunctionsrepresenttheuncertaintiesinfailureratesandrepairratesofcomponentsKeywords：Distributionsystem；Reliabilityevaluation；MonteCarlosimulationtechnique；Timevaryingweightfactors；F