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1、InternationaltradeBoxedinGlobaltradehasturneddownsharplythisyear.TheoutlookisprettybleaktooSep8th2012|fromtheprinteditionTRADEWATCHERSoftenlooktotheoceanstogaugeactivity.Bustlingdocksharboursmeanimptersexptersarebusytrad

2、efiguresarelikelytobestrong.Emptyquaysareominous.Attheendof2011datafrombigptsstartedtoturnchoppyfuellingfearsofaslowdownthathascometopass.TheOECDreptsthatexptsfellbyover4%inthesecondquarterof2012inBritainIndiaRussiaSouth

3、Africalostmethan8%.ThatisparticularlybadnewsfplaceslikeSingapeHongKongwhichareimptanttradehubs(seet1)openeurozonecountrieslikeIrelBelgiumarealsohighlyexposed.Theobviouscauseoffallingtradeistheglobaleconomicslowdown.Since

4、exptsaresaleslookingeurozonelendersarefindingithardertoaccessdollarliquidity.AnotheristheneedfEuropeanbankstoslimtheirbalancesheets:tradefinancebecauseofitsshttermnatureiseasytoprune.Manylendersarealsounderpressuretoconc

5、entratetheiractivitiesondomesticmarkets.ThelikesofHSBCcanpickupsomeoftheslackleftbydepartingEuropeans.JapanesebankslocalbanksinChinaBrazilarealsomovingtofillgaps.Buttradefinanceislikelytobelessabundantthanitwas.Increased

6、protectionismmayalsobestartingtodragontrade.Intheearlyphasesofthiscrisisitseemedthatprotectionismwasonethingthewlddidnothavetofretabout:thelessonsofthe1930s(avoidtradewarsatallcosts)hadapparentlybeenlearned.Butthenumbero

7、fnewtradedisputesisratchetinguptoalevelthatisbeginningtolookwrying.Argentinaisinvolvedinahostofarguments.AmericaIndiaChinaareembroiledinaspatoversteel.OnSeptember4thBrazilsaiditwouldraisetariffson100products.Theriskaccdi

8、ngtoJagdishBhagwatiofColumbiaUniversityisthatcommitmenttofreetradecouldflagparticularlyaselectalpressurestaketheirtoll.Evenifanewroundofprotectionismcanbeavoidedambitionstoliberalisetradefurtheraredisappointinglylimited.

9、The11yearoldDoharoundofglobaltradenegotiationswhichcouldadd0.5%ayeartoglobalGDPbyopeningupnewmarketsisasgoodasdead.Initsplaceatangleofregionaldeals—a“spaghettibowl”inMrBhagwati’swds—hasemerged.Thehopeisthatthemostpromisi

10、ngelementsofDohacansomehowberevivedinanewdeal.Anagreementon“tradefacilitation”(cuttingredtapeatbders)wouldmethanoffsetthepettyprotectionismofsomeG20members.Butthetideofsupptffreetradeisebbing.fromtheprintedition|Financee

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