1、目錄1、行業(yè)回顧與展望..................................................81.1宏觀面回顧與展望：18年趨勢(shì)性下滑，19年下行壓力仍在........................8（1）全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)回顧與展望..........................................................................8（2）國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)回顧與展望

2、........................................................................101.2化工行業(yè)中觀層面回顧與展望：18年經(jīng)營(yíng)情況良好；19年供需預(yù)計(jì)維持動(dòng)態(tài)平衡，價(jià)格有調(diào)整壓力..........................................................................................17（1）全球化

3、工行業(yè)回顧與展望........................................................................17（2）國(guó)內(nèi)化工行業(yè)回顧與展望........................................................................201.3原油回顧與展望........................................

4、.......................................................31（1）OPEC減產(chǎn)執(zhí)行超額完成、美重啟伊朗制裁助力原油價(jià)格上行.........31（2）美國(guó)豁免八國(guó)伊油禁運(yùn)，仍希望未來(lái)該等國(guó)家減少伊油進(jìn)口.............332、投資策略.......................................................................

5、.....................................342.1產(chǎn)業(yè)格局重塑的關(guān)鍵力量...........................................................................34萬(wàn)華化學(xué)：全球聚氨酯領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)正實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展，石化與新材料業(yè)務(wù)不斷提升，向綜合服務(wù)解決方案提供商快速轉(zhuǎn)變......................................

6、................34華魯恒升：成本領(lǐng)先與內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)企業(yè)之典范，近兩年大額資本開(kāi)支項(xiàng)目進(jìn)入收獲期，后續(xù)綠色化工新材料項(xiàng)目保障長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng)..............................................37揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工：菊酯、麥草畏行業(yè)龍頭，一體化程度不斷提高，新項(xiàng)目保障未來(lái)成長(zhǎng).................................................................

7、.........................................................39中國(guó)巨石：成本領(lǐng)先的玻纖龍頭，新產(chǎn)能投放促成長(zhǎng)...................................41桐昆股份：滌綸長(zhǎng)絲產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)規(guī)模不斷增長(zhǎng)，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化程度進(jìn)一步提高...422.2需求較快增長(zhǎng)行業(yè)......................................................

8、.................................442.2.1鋰電材料：中國(guó)企業(yè)具備全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，將受益于全球范圍內(nèi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)持續(xù)成長(zhǎng)大趨勢(shì)..........................................................................................................442.2.2光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)空間巨大，有望持續(xù)帶動(dòng)EVA膠膜產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展.

9、..502.2.3半導(dǎo)體化學(xué)品&液晶材料：受益產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移，材料國(guó)產(chǎn)化空間廣闊......552.2.4OLED材料：下游消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)需求強(qiáng)勁，中國(guó)廠商開(kāi)始發(fā)力..652.3農(nóng)化：需求較為剛性，供給側(cè)有望持續(xù)向好............................................672.3.1農(nóng)化需求較為剛性，大宗商品處于底部，刺激農(nóng)化產(chǎn)品消費(fèi).............672.3.2農(nóng)藥行業(yè)：環(huán)保持續(xù)高壓、行業(yè)壁壘提

10、高助力供給側(cè)持續(xù)優(yōu)化.........682.3.3復(fù)合肥行業(yè)：“化肥零增長(zhǎng)”推動(dòng)施肥復(fù)合化率穩(wěn)步提高，掌握技術(shù)、渠道和上游資源的企業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)突出..............................................................................732.4民營(yíng)煉化投產(chǎn)在即，PTA、丙烯供需改善，油氣上游勘探開(kāi)發(fā)力度加大....752.4.1民營(yíng)煉化投產(chǎn)在即，相對(duì)主營(yíng)煉廠競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力較強(qiáng)...

11、..................................752.4.2PTA新增供給有限，供需格局或繼續(xù)改善.............................................772.4.3丙烯新增產(chǎn)能放緩，供需格局改善........................................................782.4.4油價(jià)回暖、保障能源安全，油氣上游勘探及開(kāi)發(fā)資本支出增加...

12、......792.4.5重點(diǎn)關(guān)注標(biāo)的............................................................................................802.5其他值得重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的子行業(yè).......................................................................822.5.1氨綸：行業(yè)整合有望加速，龍頭

13、企業(yè)受益于行業(yè)格局改善.................822.5.2粘膠：棉花供需或趨緊張，粘膠短纖價(jià)格存上漲預(yù)期.........................842.5.3輪胎：行業(yè)近年來(lái)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，替換市場(chǎng)前景廣闊.................................853、重點(diǎn)公司....................................................................

14、........................................884、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示............................................................................................................88圖50.全球化工品上市公司CapEx情況（季度）.......................20圖51.巴斯夫?qū)?820全

15、球化工產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)..............................................20圖52.中國(guó)化工景氣度17年起上升，今年走弱................................................21圖53.中國(guó)化工行業(yè)工業(yè)增加值增速放緩.........................................................21圖54.中國(guó)化工行業(yè)動(dòng)力

16、煤消費(fèi)量當(dāng)月同比......................................................21圖55.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)用電量當(dāng)月同比.............................................................21圖56.中國(guó)主要化工品產(chǎn)量減速增長(zhǎng)甚而下滑..................................................21圖5

17、7.中國(guó)化工產(chǎn)品價(jià)格指數(shù)CCPI....................................................................21圖58.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)出口數(shù)量指數(shù)（同比）..................................................22圖59.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)出口價(jià)格指數(shù)（同比）........................................

18、..........22圖60.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)進(jìn)口數(shù)量指數(shù)（同比）..................................................22圖61.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù)（同比）..................................................22圖62.WTI原油期貨價(jià)格與美元指數(shù)............................................

19、......................22圖63.人民幣對(duì)美元匯率（中間價(jià)）.................................................................22圖64.中國(guó)化工上市公司ROE水平（年化）....................................................23圖65.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)ROE水平.....................

20、..................................................23圖66.中國(guó)化工上市公司營(yíng)收增速（同比）......................................................23圖67.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)營(yíng)收增速（累計(jì)同比）..................................................23圖68.中國(guó)化工上市公司毛利率（季度）

21、.........................................................24圖69.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)毛利率（季度）.............................................................24圖70.中國(guó)化工上市公司利潤(rùn)總額增速（同比）..............................................24圖71.中國(guó)化工子行

22、業(yè)利潤(rùn)總額增速（累計(jì)同比）..........................................24圖72.中國(guó)化工上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率.................................................................24圖73.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率...............................................................

23、......24圖74.中國(guó)化工上市公司產(chǎn)成品存貨增速（同比）..........................................25圖75.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)產(chǎn)成品存貨增速（同比）..............................................25圖76.具有代表性的26個(gè)行業(yè)、51種化工產(chǎn)品價(jià)格變化情況分析...............26圖77.高頻數(shù)據(jù)指向PPI環(huán)比維持溫和........

24、......................................................27圖78.生產(chǎn)資料價(jià)格指數(shù)與PPI走向基本一致..................................................27圖79.化工主要子行業(yè)PPI同比（基期為100）...............................................28圖80.化工主要子行業(yè)PPI同比（

25、基期為100）...............................................28圖81.化工行業(yè)的周期性：產(chǎn)能投放與產(chǎn)品價(jià)格..............................................28圖82.基礎(chǔ)化工上市公司資本開(kāi)支情況.............................................................29圖83.石油石化公司資本開(kāi)

26、支情況.....................................................................29圖84.中石油中石化資本開(kāi)支情況.....................................................................29圖85.中國(guó)化工子行業(yè)固投完成額增速.........................................

27、....................29圖86.大市值基礎(chǔ)化工上市公司在建工程占比..................................................30圖87.大市值基礎(chǔ)化工上市公司歸母凈利潤(rùn)占比..............................................30圖88.國(guó)際原油期貨價(jià)格走勢(shì).........................................

28、....................................31圖89.美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量快速增長(zhǎng).............................................................................31圖90.伊核協(xié)議以來(lái)伊朗原油產(chǎn)量大幅增加......................................................31圖91.全球原油供應(yīng)、需求

29、情況.........................................................................32圖92.OECD國(guó)家商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存..........................................................................32圖93.OPEC部分國(guó)家原油產(chǎn)量...................................

30、........................................32圖94.OPEC原油產(chǎn)量及減產(chǎn)執(zhí)行率...................................................................32圖95.伊朗原油出口情況...............................................................................

31、......33圖96.萬(wàn)華9717年歸母凈利潤(rùn)C(jī)AGR達(dá)40%.................................................34圖97.萬(wàn)華MDI產(chǎn)能占比不斷提升實(shí)現(xiàn)突破....................................................34圖98.萬(wàn)華長(zhǎng)期維持2540%毛利率、1020%凈利率...................................